{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101402",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-60-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 60%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 60%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 60%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.6,
    "volume_24h_usd": 35474.81,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 60% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "Politico reports top Republicans privately writing off the House, yet the Kalshi contract holds well above 50%, suggesting the market is pricing Senate retention as the likely backstop.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract puts 90% on Republicans winning House control outright, note this appears inconsistent with the Politico reporting and warrants caution on that contract's framing.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirm resolution source; likely a data-feed placeholder; actual resolution would follow certified election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Mia McCarthy",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/14/house-republicans-private-lost-cause-01117673",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senior Republicans are privately conceding that House control is likely lost, with internal polling showing deep erosion in Trump-leaning districts.",
      "publisher": "Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Mia McCarthy",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/14/house-republicans-private-lost-cause-01117673"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 60% reflects a split-chamber scenario where the Senate offsets a House loss, not a full Republican sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Meredith Lee Hill, Andrew Howard, Mia McCarthy: House control all but gone, top Republicans privately concede - POLITI",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/14/house-republicans-private-lost-cause-01117673",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-60-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-60-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}