{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092103",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:46:30.911Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays favored at 61 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 61%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.61,
    "volume_24h_usd": 60589.13,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 61%.",
    "Despite the NBC poll showing voter dissatisfaction with Trump's economic stewardship, Kalshi still puts the GOP at a clear favorite to hold at least one chamber.",
    "The 61% reading suggests the market is not fully fading negative Trump approval numbers; the closer-than-expected generic ballot noted in the poll aligns with the modest but real Republican edge priced in.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the Kalshi contract terms, though the actual settlement trigger is the official post-election chamber composition."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-say-trump-hurt-economy-competitive-midterm-election-looms-rcna597868",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An NBC News poll finds most voters say Trump has hurt the economy, but the generic congressional race remains closer than in Trump's first midterm.",
      "publisher": "NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:46:30.911Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-say-trump-hurt-economy-competitive-midterm-election-looms-rcna597868"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 61% reflects a market that acknowledges political headwinds for Republicans but still gives them better-than-even odds of retaining meaningful congressional power."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "NBC News: Poll: Most voters say Trump has hurt the economy as competitive midter",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-say-trump-hurt-economy-competitive-midterm-election-looms-rcna597868",
      "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:46:30.911Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}