{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102105",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans retaining at least one chamber stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 65%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 65%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.65,
    "volume_24h_usd": 153134.34,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 65% probability on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "AP coverage frames the economic backdrop as unfavorable for the ruling party, but the market is pricing Republicans as still favored to retain a foothold in Congress.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract puts only 52% on a Democratic blue tsunami in 2026, meaning the market sees near coin-flip odds on a sweeping Democratic wave.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named resolution source, though the underlying determination is the congressional seat count per official election certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Josh Boak, Melissa Goldin",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-economy-inflation-38c6e694edd13742244e23cff5f96446",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T13:24:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "AP fact-focus piece reviews economic data as a key variable for voters ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with Trump's economic record under scrutiny.",
      "publisher": "Josh Boak, Melissa Goldin",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-economy-inflation-38c6e694edd13742244e23cff5f96446"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi carries both the Republican chamber-hold contract at 65% and the blue-tsunami contract at 52%, implying the market sees a narrow but real path to a Democratic sweep alongside a more likely Republican floor."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Josh Boak, Melissa Goldin: FACT FOCUS: When it comes to Trump's economy, these are the numbers th",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-economy-inflation-38c6e694edd13742244e23cff5f96446",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T13:24:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}