{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110103",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-of-congress-kalshi-70-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 70%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber of Congress: Kalshi 70%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.7,
    "volume_24h_usd": 219604.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 70% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "The NBC poll showing a 7-point Democratic lead in the generic ballot is a bearish signal for Republicans, yet Kalshi's 70% reflects a market that is not fully accepting the poll's implied Democratic sweep.",
    "Winning at least one chamber is a lower bar than winning both; the 70% likely reflects Senate map advantages for Republicans even as the House leans Democratic.",
    "The Polymarket Senate contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices at 73% for a Republican Senate win, consistent with the Kalshi reading and suggesting the Senate is carrying most of the GOP's one-chamber probability."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-demand-change-check-trump-fueling-steep-democratic-midterm-rcna606183",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a 7-point lead in the battle for Congress and Trump's disapproval at a record 60%, two days before the midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-demand-change-check-trump-fueling-steep-democratic-midterm-rcna606183"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics, likely a metadata error; resolution in practice will track official congressional certification."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman: Poll: Voters demand change and a check on Trump, fueling a steep Democ",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-voters-demand-change-check-trump-fueling-steep-democratic-midterm-rcna606183",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-of-congress-kalshi-70-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-of-congress-kalshi-70-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}