{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093005",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-post-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber after midterms stays above 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 61%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one chamber post-midterms: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.61,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17296.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 61% odds on Republicans retaining at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, a modest but clear GOP-favored read.",
    "Visible GOP defections from Trump and near-$4.50 gas prices add political pressure, yet the 61% price shows the market is not yet pricing a Democratic sweep.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on a full Democratic blue tsunami sits at 54%, implying the market sees the two scenarios as nearly balanced on the Senate-only question.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as resolution source per the listed data; standard resolution would be official election certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mike Lillis, Rachel Frazin",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6118768-gop-trump-gas-prices-data-centers-iran-war-immigration-enforcement/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Republicans in both chambers are increasingly breaking with President Trump on key issues as gas prices near $4.50 and his approval ratings fall ahead of midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Mike Lillis, Rachel Frazin",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6118768-gop-trump-gas-prices-data-centers-iran-war-immigration-enforcement/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 61% sits just above the even-money line, reflecting genuine uncertainty; the blue-tsunami contract at 54% confirms close market splits on chamber control."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mike Lillis, Rachel Frazin: GOP breaks with Trump as gas nears $4.50",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6118768-gop-trump-gas-prices-data-centers-iran-war-immigration-enforcement/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-post-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}