{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101205",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-chamber-post-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans favored to hold at least one chamber after midterms",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 61%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one+ chamber post-midterms: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.61,
    "volume_24h_usd": 55595.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 61% odds Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections, resolving via the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",
    "Musk's outsized donor role adds resources to Republican campaigns, and the Kalshi contract reflects a market leaning toward GOP retention of at least one chamber.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract puts 68% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats post-midterms, suggesting broad GOP structural advantage is priced in.",
    "Resolution requires determining chamber control after all 2026 midterm results are certified; split-chamber outcomes would satisfy the one-chamber threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jill Colvin",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510?nbsp%3B%3Cbr%3EElon=",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Elon Musk has become the largest known donor in the 2026 midterm contests, quietly funding Republican efforts as November approaches.",
      "publisher": "Jill Colvin",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510?nbsp%3B%3Cbr%3EElon="
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices Republicans at 61% to hold at least one chamber, with the governorships contract at 68% showing consistent GOP favorability across prediction markets."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jill Colvin: Elon Musk quietly becomes biggest known donor in midterm contests as h",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-midterms-republicans-donors-c06efc774a2e7c5d345e0d46641eb510?nbsp%3B%3Cbr%3EElon=",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T15:32:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-post-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-chamber-post-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}