{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102502",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 65 percent odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 65%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one Congress chamber after midterms: Kalshi 65%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.65,
    "volume_24h_usd": 36292.1,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 65% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "The story ties the Fed hold directly to midterm timing, but the Kalshi contract shows Republicans as clear but not overwhelming favorites.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract puts 75% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats, suggesting broader GOP strength at the state level than in Congress.",
    "Resolution depends on certified election results per Bureau of Labor Statistics designation as resolution source, with any contested races potentially delaying settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thenationaltimes.au",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationaltimes.au/Politics/797937-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-days-ahead-of-us-midterms.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T12:56:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its October meeting, days ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, with political pressure cited as a backdrop.",
      "publisher": "thenationaltimes.au",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationaltimes.au/Politics/797937-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-days-ahead-of-us-midterms.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices a 65% GOP congressional probability, with the governorship contract at 75% showing a cross-market spread that implies more state-level confidence than federal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thenationaltimes.au: The National Times - Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U",
      "url": "https://www.thenationaltimes.au/Politics/797937-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-days-ahead-of-us-midterms.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T12:56:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-65-2026-10-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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