{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102205",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-67-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 67 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 67%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one Congress chamber after midterms: Kalshi 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.67,
    "volume_24h_usd": 147233.99,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republicans retaining at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 67%.",
    "The Means resignation adds turbulence to a Republican-aligned health initiative, but the 67% figure suggests the market is not dramatically repricing GOP chamber prospects on this news alone.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats at 77% (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) suggests the market sees state-level Republican strength outlasting congressional performance.",
    "Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the contract metadata; the definitive trigger is the certified chamber composition following the November 3 election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Carmen Paun",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/politicopulse/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T12:26:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Politico reports RFK Jr.'s top adviser Calley Means resigned from HHS, rattling the MAHA movement ahead of the midterms.",
      "publisher": "Carmen Paun",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/politicopulse/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the GOP at 67% to hold at least one chamber, sitting below the 77% governorship contract and above the 53% 'blue tsunami' contract, reflecting a calibrated split-outcome scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Carmen Paun: POLITICO Pulse - POLITICO",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/politicopulse/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T12:26:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-67-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-67-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}