{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103004",
  "record_slug": "gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-70-2026-10-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans retaining at least one chamber stays near 75%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 70%",
  "headline": "GOP holds one Congress chamber after midterms: Kalshi 70%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.7,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2110519.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the midterms sits at 70%.",
    "Election-day is days away; the 70% reading reflects a market that favors GOP retention of at least one chamber but does not treat it as a near-certainty.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on the Democratic Party winning the U.S. House (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) sits at 94%, implying the market sees Democrats flipping the House as very likely while Republicans hold the Senate.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics per the contract terms, an unusual resolution source for an electoral question; traders should note this potential ambiguity."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The final weekend of the 2026 U.S. midterm campaign features Trump tele-rallies, a Democratic intraparty rift in Michigan, and major tech earnings all hitting markets simultaneously.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 70%; the 94% Democratic House win contract on Kalshi implies the 70% GOP-holds-one-chamber reading is driven almost entirely by Senate retention odds."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Take Five: Midterms meet earnings",
      "url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-70-2026-10-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-holds-one-congress-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-70-2026-10-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}