{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090205",
  "record_slug": "gop-house-control-2026-polymarket-90-2026-09-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans heavily favored to win House control in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 90%",
  "headline": "GOP House control 2026: Polymarket 90%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican Party win control of the House of Representatives in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd5d9fc47718bd553592d126b1fa5e87183d27f3936975b0c04cc0f2dec1f1bb4",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.9,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24682.040352,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Republicans winning House control in 2026 is priced at 90%, a strongly favored outcome.",
    "Democrats blocking the Supreme Court cap amendment is a routine partisan vote consistent with the current Republican majority environment the 90% price implies.",
    "Trump vowing to campaign in 35 midterm races (Story 12) and the government funding bill passing bipartisanly (Story 13) add further midterm context without shifting this contract's direction.",
    "Resolution is tied to the official 2026 midterm election results and House seat counts, via an unspecified resolution source."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "devdiscourse.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3971707-democrats-sink-republican-bid-to-cap-supreme-court-at-nine-justices",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats in the House defeated a Republican constitutional amendment to cap the Supreme Court at nine justices, with Democrats voting against the measure.",
      "publisher": "devdiscourse.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3971707-democrats-sink-republican-bid-to-cap-supreme-court-at-nine-justices"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 90% is the only hard price among the midterm House control candidates; companion Senate and combined-chamber contracts carry no disclosed prices."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "devdiscourse.com: Democrats sink Republican bid to cap Supreme Court at nine justices |",
      "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3971707-democrats-sink-republican-bid-to-cap-supreme-court-at-nine-justices",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-house-control-2026-polymarket-90-2026-09-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-house-control-2026-polymarket-90-2026-09-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}