{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101805",
  "record_slug": "gop-retains-at-least-one-chamber-kalshi-63-2026-10-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays above 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 63%",
  "headline": "GOP retains at least one chamber: Kalshi 63%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 99368.34,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 63% probability on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "The record-low Trump approval headline is bearish for GOP chances, yet the Kalshi prediction market still prices Republicans as the modest favorite to hold at least one chamber.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) puts 90% on Democrats winning the House, implying the market sees a split Congress as the most likely outcome, with Republicans favored to retain the Senate.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics classification, per the stated source; actual chamber control determined by certified election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dan Balz",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/18/trump-approval-hits-record-low-handing-democrats-clear-midterm-edge/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T07:47:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Washington Post reports Trump's approval rating has hit a record low of 33%, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge with two weeks until Election Day.",
      "publisher": "Dan Balz",
      "published_at": "2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/18/trump-approval-hits-record-low-handing-democrats-clear-midterm-edge/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 63% for Republican retention of at least one chamber is in tension with the record-low approval narrative, suggesting markets see Senate retention as the likely path even if the House flips."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dan Balz: Trump approval hits record low, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/18/trump-approval-hits-record-low-handing-democrats-clear-midterm-edge/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T07:47:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-retains-at-least-one-chamber-kalshi-63-2026-10-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}