{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101306",
  "record_slug": "gop-retains-one-chamber-after-2026-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 62%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "GOP retains one chamber after 2026 midterms: Kalshi 62%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 30935.42,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices 62% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.",
    "Trump's Alaska rally and the Guilfoyle resignation underscore GOP concern about retaining Congress, consistent with a market short of full conviction at 62%.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-CRMKQSR4R6) prices 91% on a new Montana senator being elected, flagging one competitive seat already likely to flip.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source, though the operative data is the congressional election outcome on November 3."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-corruption-election-putin-zacharia-aa4ec095692c57a851a942c0f21624f7",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump traveled to Alaska to campaign for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan while Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned amid allegations of improper conduct, signaling GOP anxiety before November 3.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-corruption-election-putin-zacharia-aa4ec095692c57a851a942c0f21624f7"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 62% places Republicans as modest favorites to hold at least one chamber, reflecting competitive midterm conditions rather than a foregone outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: The Latest: Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns, vows to challenge a",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-corruption-election-putin-zacharia-aa4ec095692c57a851a942c0f21624f7",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-retains-one-chamber-after-2026-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-retains-one-chamber-after-2026-midterms-kalshi-62-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}