{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110104",
  "record_slug": "gop-senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T12:14:42.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican Senate control stays favored heading into vote",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 73%",
  "headline": "GOP Senate control 2026: Polymarket 73%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.73,
    "volume_24h_usd": 236789.54472899996,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts 73% odds on Republicans winning Senate control in the 2026 midterm elections.",
    "Multiple live coverage reports note Trump and Republican candidates are making a final push, consistent with a market that still assigns the GOP better-than-even Senate odds.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber sits at 70%, broadly aligned with the Polymarket Senate reading.",
    "The Alaska Senate seat contract (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7 at 28% for a new senator) suggests incumbency is holding; flipping that seat would marginally shift Senate control math."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Bart Jansen",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/11/01/midterm-elections-news-updates-polls--live/92383820007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Midterm live updates show Trump rallying in the final days as both parties make closing arguments across 39 gubernatorial and key congressional races.",
      "publisher": "Bart Jansen",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T12:14:42.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/11/01/midterm-elections-news-updates-polls--live/92383820007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle based on official election results; the 73% reading is durable across multiple midterm story candidates this cycle."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Bart Jansen: Midterms live updates: Trump to rally voters, latest polls",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/11/01/midterm-elections-news-updates-polls--live/92383820007/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T12:14:42.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}