{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102503",
  "record_slug": "gop-wins-fl-18-polymarket-92-volume-up-4243x-2026-10-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican win in Florida 18th heavily favored as volume surges",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 92%",
  "headline": "GOP wins FL-18: Polymarket 92%, volume up 4243x",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VDWZLZ0SR0",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-18-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican candidate win Florida's 18th House District in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x950e0c243880f9cbbaf1e73e50cf14fe11e851fbb778b9ef5d2be1e9c87a3abe",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.92,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.21,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 92% on the Republican candidate winning Florida's 18th House District, with trading volume up 4,243 times day over day.",
    "The extraordinary volume surge signals fresh attention on this contest as DOJ election activity dominates midterm coverage.",
    "At 92%, the contract treats FL-18 as a near-certain Republican hold, not a competitive race affected by legal turbulence.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle on certified election results from Florida's 18th District."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Zachary Basu",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/25/trump-doj-midterms-interference",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's DOJ is escalating election-related lawsuits, raids, and arrests nine days before the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "Zachary Basu",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/25/trump-doj-midterms-interference"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 92%; the 4,243x volume spike is the strongest day-over-day signal in this batch."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Zachary Basu: Trump's DOJ barrels into midterms with lawsuits, raids and arrests",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/25/trump-doj-midterms-interference",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-fl-18-polymarket-92-volume-up-4243x-2026-10-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-fl-18-polymarket-92-volume-up-4243x-2026-10-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}