{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082005",
  "record_slug": "gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican odds in Georgia Senate race stay near long-shot territory",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "GOP wins Georgia Senate: Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x54e4e816cc5868e2f933c6bbc597e3313bdad382be3ecf7eaa4d8fa5c3f1a1bd",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.068,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.85,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 7% on the Republican candidate winning the Georgia Senate election, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Focus group data showing economic anxiety among Georgia undecided voters aligns with the market's strong lean toward the Democratic candidate.",
    "A Kalshi contract at 92% prices the Georgia Senate race being decided by January 4, 2027, suggesting high confidence in a clean outcome timeline even if the seat itself is lopsided.",
    "The Ohio Senate Kalshi contract sits at 48%, nearly even, highlighting Georgia as an outlier, the economic anxiety story may matter far more in competitive races."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T08:23:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Focus groups in Iowa and Georgia show deep economic anxiety among undecided voters driving Senate race dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 7% on a Republican Georgia Senate win represents a heavily one-sided pricing; the Kalshi timing contract at 92% adds confidence the race resolves on schedule."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Focus groups: Deep anxiety about the economy drives undecided voters i",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/focus-groups-deep-anxiety-economy-drives-undecided-voters-two-key-sena-rcna593115",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T08:23:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-7-2026-08-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}