{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070704",
  "record_slug": "graham-platner-dropout-kalshi-91-2026-07-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Platner dropout consensus hardens after assault allegation",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 91%",
  "headline": "Graham Platner dropout: Kalshi 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5YRQP7DDC2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxplatnerdropout-26",
  "event_question": "Will Graham Platner drop out?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.906,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1932612.07,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Fox News",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices a 91% probability that Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Democratic Senate race.",
    "The allegation and rapid endorsement withdrawals are consistent with the near-consensus dropout pricing on Kalshi.",
    "The Maine Senate seat is considered a must-win for Democrats in the 2026 cycle, making candidate instability a material party-level risk.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Fox News reporting on Platner's withdrawal; a formal suspension or exit statement is the settlement trigger, not polling or primary results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "KIMBERLEE KRUESI and NICHOLAS RICCARDI Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://lite.aol.com/news/world/story/0001/20260707/061e18bdd180928bbcd94b18a52f4ec9",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A sexual assault allegation against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner prompted prominent supporters to pull endorsements, threatening a must-win Democratic race.",
      "publisher": "KIMBERLEE KRUESI and NICHOLAS RICCARDI Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://lite.aol.com/news/world/story/0001/20260707/061e18bdd180928bbcd94b18a52f4ec9"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Fox News confirmation of Platner's dropout; at 91% the market has near-fully priced a withdrawal following the Politico report."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "KIMBERLEE KRUESI and NICHOLAS RICCARDI Associated Press: Democrats begin pulling Platner endorsements after Maine candidate fac",
      "url": "https://lite.aol.com/news/world/story/0001/20260707/061e18bdd180928bbcd94b18a52f4ec9",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-dropout-kalshi-91-2026-07-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-dropout-kalshi-91-2026-07-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}