{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070705",
  "record_slug": "graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 92%",
  "headline": "Graham Platner drops out: Kalshi 92%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5YRQP7DDC2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxplatnerdropout-26",
  "event_question": "Will Graham Platner drop out?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26",
    "question_raw": "Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.916,
    "volume_24h_usd": 864358.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Fox News",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-14T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 92% probability that Graham Platner will drop out of the Maine Senate race, resolving via Fox News.",
    "Multiple news outlets report Democrats have already abandoned Platner following the sexual assault allegation, consistent with the near-certainty the market assigns to his exit.",
    "The companion Senate majority contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90 on Polymarket) prices Democrats' Senate control chances at only 45%, reflecting how pivotal Maine was to their path.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via Fox News reporting of a confirmed Platner withdrawal; the 92% price suggests the market is treating departure as near-certain but not yet officially confirmed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "foxnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A sexual assault allegation against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner has prompted Democrats to abandon him, imperiling the party's narrow path to a Senate majority.",
      "publisher": "foxnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 92% is tightly aligned with news of Democratic abandonment of the candidate; resolution awaits Fox News confirmation of a formal withdrawal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "foxnews.com: The 2026 midterm races that could flip Senate control | Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}