{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062308",
  "record_slug": "hedge-fund-home-buying-ban-becomes-law-kalshi-84-2026-06-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:41:51.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hedge fund home-buying ban law before election consensus holds firm",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "Hedge fund home-buying ban becomes law: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HH1QMWSWC1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhfhousing-27",
  "event_question": "Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHFHOUSING-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a bill become law taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes before election day?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 125.77,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a bill taxing or banning hedge funds from owning homes becoming law before the election at 84%.",
    "The Senate's overwhelming 85-5 vote on a broad housing bill is consistent with the elevated probability, signaling strong bipartisan appetite for housing legislation.",
    "The 16% residual likely reflects uncertainty about whether the final enacted bill will contain a hedge fund ownership restriction specifically.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress; the contract requires the provision to actually become law, not merely pass one chamber."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "uk-times.com",
          "source_url": "https://uk-times.com/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-bipartisan-housing-bill-aimed-at-lowering-costs-uk-times/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate passed an 85-5 bipartisan housing supply bill aimed at lowering costs by boosting housing stock.",
      "publisher": "uk-times.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:41:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://uk-times.com/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-bipartisan-housing-bill-aimed-at-lowering-costs-uk-times/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 84% reflects the Senate supermajority as a strong precursor, but resolution depends on the final bill's specific hedge fund restriction language."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "uk-times.com: Senate overwhelmingly passes bipartisan housing bill aimed at lowering",
      "url": "https://uk-times.com/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-bipartisan-housing-bill-aimed-at-lowering-costs-uk-times/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:41:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hedge-fund-home-buying-ban-becomes-law-kalshi-84-2026-06-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hedge-fund-home-buying-ban-becomes-law-kalshi-84-2026-06-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}