{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110905",
  "record_slug": "hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hegseth out by year-end holds near 34%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 34%",
  "headline": "Hegseth exits as Defense Sec by Dec 31: Polymarket 34%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc",
    "question_raw": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 197226.859687,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 34% odds on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense before December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Impeachment articles have been filed and a House vote is imminent, yet the market holds well below 50%, suggesting limited confidence the effort succeeds.",
    "Democrats now hold significant House majorities per news reporting, which should give them procedural leverage; the 34% price may understate near-term event risk.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires confirmation of departure by December 31, 2026; a House impeachment vote alone does not resolve the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "House Republicans filed articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote expected as early as this week.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; 34% reflects the market pricing meaningful but sub-even odds despite active impeachment proceedings."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Trump administration live updates: Congress returns with government fu",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}