{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100107",
  "record_slug": "hegseth-out-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-10-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Pete Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end holds near 25%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 21%",
  "headline": "Hegseth out as Defense Sec by Dec 31: Polymarket 21%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc",
    "question_raw": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1309.04,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 21% on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth departing by December 31, 2026, a meaningful but minority probability.",
    "Taxpayer-funded ad spending and midterm campaign activity suggest the administration is focused on consolidation, not cabinet reshuffling, broadly consistent with the sub-25% pricing.",
    "No confirmed reporting of imminent Hegseth departure; the 21% price reflects accumulated background risk rather than a specific catalyst.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires Hegseth to officially leave the role; acting or interim replacements would also satisfy the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mariam Khan",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-defends-spending-millions-taxpayer-funded-promotional-ads/story?id=136922737",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration is spending millions in taxpayer-funded promotional ads defending presidential policies ahead of the midterms.",
      "publisher": "Mariam Khan",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-defends-spending-millions-taxpayer-funded-promotional-ads/story?id=136922737"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 21% is the only priced contract available; a separate contract for departure by July 31 has no price, leaving year-end as the only available market read on this cabinet tenure question."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mariam Khan: Trump defends spending millions on taxpayer-funded promotional ads: 'F",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-defends-spending-millions-taxpayer-funded-promotional-ads/story?id=136922737",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-10-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-10-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}