{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102904",
  "record_slug": "hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-31-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end holds near 30%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 31%",
  "headline": "Hegseth out as SecDef by Dec 31: Polymarket 31%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc",
    "question_raw": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29120.540398,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Hegseth departing as Secretary of Defense by December 31 stands at 31%.",
    "Hegseth firing the Pentagon's top military planner is a significant escalation of his authority, but the market puts only about one-in-three odds on his own departure this year.",
    "The market is not pricing in the dismissal as a precursor to Hegseth's own removal, the probability stays well below 50%.",
    "With the December 31 deadline weeks away, the Kalshi contract on his June 30 departure (CM-EVT-L20R2VDVG3) has no price available; the Polymarket year-end read is the primary signal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Konstantin Toropin, Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/hegseth-fires-the-pentagons-top-military-planner-even-as-trump-considers-new-iran-strikes",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired the Pentagon's top military planner as President Trump considers new strikes on Iran.",
      "publisher": "Konstantin Toropin, Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/hegseth-fires-the-pentagons-top-military-planner-even-as-trump-considers-new-iran-strikes"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 31% reflects meaningful but minority odds of Hegseth's departure by year-end, even as his aggressive personnel moves intensify scrutiny."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Konstantin Toropin, Associated Press: Hegseth fires the Pentagon's top military planner even as Trump consid",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/hegseth-fires-the-pentagons-top-military-planner-even-as-trump-considers-new-iran-strikes",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T20:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-31-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-31-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}