{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110505",
  "record_slug": "hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-42-2026-11-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:41:59.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end sits near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 42%",
  "headline": "Hegseth out as SecDef by Dec 31: Polymarket 42%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc",
    "question_raw": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 239984.39259699997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 42% on Pete Hegseth departing as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026.",
    "Trump's public backing of Hegseth is not moving the needle to low odds; the market holds near 50%, signaling continued doubt about Hegseth's tenure through year-end.",
    "The Republican midterm drubbing and incoming Democratic Congress raise the political pressure environment that the contract is pricing.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the near-50% pricing means the market is treating this as a genuine coin-flip through the end of the year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "C By Claire Campbell",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-06/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-updates/107351586",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump backed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly amid Republican midterm losses and reports of post-election political instability.",
      "publisher": "C By Claire Campbell",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:41:59.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-06/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-updates/107351586"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 42%; Trump's public endorsement of Hegseth has not pushed odds to clearly low territory, reflecting persistent departure risk."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "C By Claire Campbell: US midterm elections 2026 live updates: Trump backs Hegseth, moves to",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-06/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-updates/107351586",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T17:41:59.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-42-2026-11-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-as-secdef-by-dec-31-polymarket-42-2026-11-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}