{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090105",
  "record_slug": "hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by December stays near 25 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 25%",
  "headline": "Hegseth out by Dec 31: Polymarket 25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc",
    "question_raw": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11268.266219,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 25% on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Driscoll's resignation amid friction with Hegseth is a concrete signal of Pentagon tension, and trading volume on this contract rose 1,799% day over day.",
    "The surge in volume indicates fresh market attention on the Hegseth exit question following the Driscoll news.",
    "At 25%, the market does not treat Hegseth's departure as a base case, but the volume spike suggests the Driscoll exit is viewed as a meaningful new data point."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "gulfnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after months of friction with Pete Hegseth, as US-Iran hostilities resumed in the Hormuz region.",
      "publisher": "gulfnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 25% with volume up roughly 19x day over day; the Driscoll resignation is drawing significant fresh trading interest in the Hegseth contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "gulfnews.com: US-Iran war: Hormuz oil flows rebound to two-thirds as Trump warns of",
      "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-to-two-thirds-as-trump-warns-of-more-strikes-on-tehran-us-army-secretary-driscoll-resigns-1.500658835",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T03:16:49.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-out-by-dec-31-polymarket-25-2026-09-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}