{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080707",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-7-day-avg-transits-seen-25-30-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz daily transits implied near 25-30 calls",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Hormuz 7-day avg transits seen 25-30: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-11"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26aug09",
  "event_question": "Strait of Hormuz daily transit calls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T30",
    "question_raw": "Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 927.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-09T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies Hormuz 7-day average transits in the 25-30 range: 68% above 25 calls, 40% above 30, falling sharply to 15% above 40.",
    "Houthi attacks on ADNOC vessels and Iran's conditions for reopening are consistent with the market pricing well below pre-conflict transit levels.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder on the 7-day moving average (CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0) shows 53% above 40, a sharper distribution implying uncertainty about which week the data captures.",
    "Resolution depends on the specific measurement date and transit counting methodology; the named source is unspecified, creating settlement edge-case risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-attacks-iran-us-explainer-6d79ab62dc697281ba5be0352e95b2c5",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Houthi attacks on vessels in the region are stoking fears of a wider conflict that could further restrict Strait of Hormuz shipping.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-attacks-iran-us-explainer-6d79ab62dc697281ba5be0352e95b2c5"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's transit ladder prices a deeply disrupted but not fully closed strait, with Houthi escalation news consistent with the lower end of the implied range."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Houthis' claims of deadly attacks stoke fears of a wider regional conf",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-attacks-iran-us-explainer-6d79ab62dc697281ba5be0352e95b2c5",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-avg-transits-seen-25-30-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-avg-transits-seen-25-30-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}