{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081404",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz transit traffic stays heavily discounted below 40 calls",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Hormuz 7-day transit avg below 40 calls: Kalshi ladder 41%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzavg-27jan01",
  "event_question": "7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40",
    "question_raw": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.41,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-05T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices a 41% chance the 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls stays at or below 40; probability rises sharply through lower thresholds, implying severe disruption is already the base case.",
    "Iran's halt of tanker traffic and flat-out rejection of US negotiations align with a market distribution heavily weighted toward continued low transit activity.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 44%, suggesting even a year-end recovery is seen as a coin flip.",
    "Resolution tracks the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz using shipping data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eman Abouhassira",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and rebuffed US peace overtures, with Trump telling Americans to accept higher gasoline prices.",
      "publisher": "Eman Abouhassira",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder and the Polymarket year-end normalization contract at 44% together paint a picture of a market expecting prolonged Hormuz disruption with no clear resolution path priced in."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eman Abouhassira: Iran defiant on strait as Trump tells Americans to accept high gasolin",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}