{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080305",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-daily-transits-kalshi-ladder-implies-60-70-calls-2026-08-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz transit volume seen staying low, stuck below 70 daily calls",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Hormuz daily transits: Kalshi ladder implies 60-70 calls",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZP6006CHN9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26jul26",
  "event_question": "Strait of Hormuz daily transit calls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL26-T70",
    "question_raw": "Will there be more than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_24h_usd": 172.69,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-26T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies roughly 60-70 daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz: 71% above 60 but only 16% above 70.",
    "Trump's optimism about imminent reopening is being faded by the market, which puts only 16% odds on transit volume recovering above 70 daily calls.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-LCPV825X09) prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 57%, a longer-horizon market also reflecting deep uncertainty.",
    "Resolution: Strait of Hormuz transit call data (the named resolution source) settles each strike on the Kalshi ladder."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-us-israel-palestinians-gaza-3b92568b6f2eec283eb51d0327ee682a",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump called off fresh Iran strikes and said new talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, expressing optimism the waterway could reopen imminently.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-us-israel-palestinians-gaza-3b92568b6f2eec283eb51d0327ee682a"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder and Polymarket year-end contract both show the market discounting Trump's optimism on a rapid Hormuz reopening."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump says new talks on Iran war will begin Monday | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-us-israel-palestinians-gaza-3b92568b6f2eec283eb51d0327ee682a",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-daily-transits-kalshi-ladder-implies-60-70-calls-2026-08-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-daily-transits-kalshi-ladder-implies-60-70-calls-2026-08-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}