{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083104",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays below 30 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 29%",
  "headline": "Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 29%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 65893.814973,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 29% on the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Trump's vow to hit Iran hard and Tehran keeping the strait shut is consistent with the market's low-odds view on near-term reopening.",
    "Iran's conditional ceasefire offer provides some diplomatic optionality, but the 29% price suggests markets treat it as a long shot.",
    "No near-term Hormuz contract with a price was available for comparison, but the year-end 29% price already reflects a protracted standoff scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump vowed to hit Iran hard after the first US-Iran exchange of fire in weeks, while Iran said it would return to a ceasefire if the US does.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 29% on full Hormuz normalization by year-end; the conditional ceasefire offer from Iran has not materially shifted the odds."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Trump vows to hit back 'hard' after first exchange of fire with Iran i",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-vows-hit-back-hard-after-first-exchange-fire-iran-in-weeks-6352671",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01T13:00:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-29-2026-08-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}