{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080406",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-57-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz back to normal by year-end holds near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 57%",
  "headline": "Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 57%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.57,
    "volume_24h_usd": 101843.33134399998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 57%.",
    "Contradictory US-Iran accounts on talks and a fresh cargo ship strike are consistent with the market holding near 50-50 rather than pricing a clean resolution.",
    "The market is not deeply discounting the year-end normalization scenario despite the striking divergence in official narratives.",
    "Resolution: Polymarket UMA oracle settles based on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic objectively returns to pre-conflict normal levels by December 31."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "al-monitor.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/status-us-iran-talks-uncertain-ship-struck-hormuz",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-Iran talks remain uncertain after a cargo ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran denied accounts given by Washington about ongoing negotiations.",
      "publisher": "al-monitor.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/status-us-iran-talks-uncertain-ship-struck-hormuz"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket sits at 57%, barely above even odds, reflecting genuine strategic uncertainty on the Hormuz standoff timeline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "al-monitor.com: Status of US-Iran talks uncertain as ship struck in Hormuz - AL-MONITO",
      "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/status-us-iran-talks-uncertain-ship-struck-hormuz",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-57-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-57-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}