{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062302",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz year-end reopening consensus hardens above three-quarters",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 78%",
  "headline": "Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.78,
    "volume_24h_usd": 289674.7514719999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 78%.",
    "Iran's assertion of control over Hormuz is at odds with the elevated probability, suggesting markets weight the broader diplomatic trajectory over Iran's bargaining posture.",
    "The June 30 Hormuz deadline contract sits at only 18%, showing the market expects normalization to take months, not days.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the definition of 'normal' relative to pre-war baselines is the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "news24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran insisted it will control the Strait of Hormuz even as the US agreed to lift sanctions following Switzerland talks.",
      "publisher": "news24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 78% year-end price versus 18% end-of-June price reveals a market expecting a gradual, post-deal normalization arc rather than an imminent reopening."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "news24.com: Iran insists it will control Strait of Hormuz as US agrees to lift san",
      "url": "https://www.news24.com/world/iran-insists-it-will-control-strait-of-hormuz-as-us-agrees-to-lift-sanctions-20260623-0295",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}