{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092807",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-back-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-09-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays at 20%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 20%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 65924.281228,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 20% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, keeping the outcome a long shot.",
    "Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal is consistent with this low probability; ongoing mediation has not moved the market toward a resolution.",
    "A related Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1) puts just 2% on the U.S. reopening its embassy in Iran, underscoring the market's skepticism across diplomatic milestones.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the December 31 deadline makes any late-stage deal extremely time-constrained given the current impasse."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Samy Magdy and Matthew Lee         Sept. 28, 2026  8:33 AM PT",
          "source_url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-28/mediators-working-to-broker-u-s-iran-deal-even-after-trump-rejected-latest-tehran-proposal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Mediators continued brokering a U.S.-Iran deal even after Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal, with talks ongoing through Qatari intermediaries.",
      "publisher": "Samy Magdy and Matthew Lee         Sept. 28, 2026  8:33 AM PT",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-28/mediators-working-to-broker-u-s-iran-deal-even-after-trump-rejected-latest-tehran-proposal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds Hormuz normalization at 20% with Iran talks stalled; the 2% embassy contract on Kalshi reinforces the broad diplomatic pessimism across venues."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Samy Magdy and Matthew Lee         Sept. 28, 2026  8:33 AM PT: Mediators working to broker U.S.-Iran deal even after Trump rejected l",
      "url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-28/mediators-working-to-broker-u-s-iran-deal-even-after-trump-rejected-latest-tehran-proposal",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-back-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-09-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-back-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-09-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}