{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110506",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-11-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T13:20:11.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 297230.607457,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 is priced at 10%, reflecting low confidence in a near-term resolution.",
    "The latest tanker incidents in the Persian Gulf are consistent with the low-odds pricing; active interdiction operations directly undercut any near-term normalization thesis.",
    "Trump acknowledged the Iran war hurt Republicans in the midterms, raising the political pressure to seek a resolution, but markets are not yet pricing any ceasefire pathway.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the question hinges on a broadly accepted definition of 'normal' traffic, which adds judgment risk to settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ammanuel Desta",
          "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/163503/early-edition-november-5-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after using unauthorized routes through the Persian Gulf, with vessels struck by projectiles off Qatar's coast.",
      "publisher": "Ammanuel Desta",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T13:20:11.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/163503/early-edition-november-5-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 10% reflects active conflict conditions; no companion contract with a price was available to build a term-structure comparison."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ammanuel Desta: Early Edition: November 5, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/163503/early-edition-november-5-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T13:20:11.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-11-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-10-2026-11-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}