{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102907",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-11-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays unlikely",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 66222.318238,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, prices at just 11%.",
    "The mine-strike report on three tankers is consistent with the market's pessimistic outlook; normalization by year-end looks unlikely given ongoing military and diplomatic tensions.",
    "Separately, Vance's outreach to Iran's security chief on peace talks adds a thin diplomatic thread, but the market at 11% assigns little weight to a rapid resolution.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; with the US reportedly weighing new military strikes after midterms, the path to normalized shipping traffic before January is narrow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-israel-elections-netanyahu-october-282026-c11dac838a072af25ba8d0eb81d01035",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:55:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran said three oil tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to ongoing disruption in one of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-israel-elections-netanyahu-october-282026-c11dac838a072af25ba8d0eb81d01035"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's UMA oracle resolves on verified shipping traffic data; the 11% price reflects a market that sees diplomacy as insufficient to reopen the strait before year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: Iran says 3 oil tankers struck mines, and other Mideast news",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/mideast-iran-israel-elections-netanyahu-october-282026-c11dac838a072af25ba8d0eb81d01035",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:55:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-11-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-11-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}