{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102306",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 12%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 35581.737457,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts only 12% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.",
    "Iran's reported tanker attacks and ongoing threats of wider strikes on economic targets are consistent with the market's deeply skeptical pricing.",
    "Oil near $100 per barrel, noted in concurrent market coverage, is the direct transmission mechanism from Hormuz disruption into broader inflation risk.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key ambiguity that could drive resolution disputes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ETV Bharat English Team",
          "source_url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran reported attacks on seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with the UN urging a return to diplomacy as regional tensions remained elevated.",
      "publisher": "ETV Bharat English Team",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 12% firmly rejects near-term Hormuz normalization, aligned with active tanker attacks and Iran's escalatory posture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ETV Bharat English Team: West Asia Crisis LIVE | 7 Oil Tankers Attacked In Hormuz, Says Iran; U",
      "url": "https://www.etvbharat.com/en/international/live-blog--us-israel-iran-war-houthi-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz-latest-updates-enn26102300426",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T13:03:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-12-2026-10-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}