{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101107",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays near 17 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 17%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 17%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26101.151168,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 17% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Escalating IRGC attacks and stalled war-ending efforts are consistent with the market's bearish read on near-term normalization.",
    "A separate news report describes US forces disabling a ship attempting to breach Iran's Gulf of Oman blockade, adding operational evidence for continued disruption.",
    "Trump separately said he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in striking Houthi targets, an escalation path that would further reduce normalization odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Maziar Motamedi",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "IRGC warnings intensified and Hormuz attack activity escalated as US-Israel-Iran war efforts showed no sign of resolution.",
      "publisher": "Maziar Motamedi",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; at 17%, the market is treating full Hormuz normalization by year-end as a tail outcome given current military posture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Maziar Motamedi: Hormuz attacks intensify as efforts to end war on Iran stall | US-Isra",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/11/hormuz-attacks-intensify-as-efforts-to-end-war-on-iran-stall",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T14:04:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-17-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}