{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092206",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32920.324821,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts just 19% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.",
    "G7 condemnation of Houthi strikes and ongoing Iran war diplomacy at the UN show active pressure for resolution, but Polymarket prices this as a long shot rather than an imminent outcome.",
    "The market at 19% implies the disruption is expected to persist well into year-end despite diplomatic activity, consistent with Iran's foreign minister declaring a continued state of war.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle based on documented evidence of normalized commercial shipping through the strait."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "france24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260922-g7-leaders-condemn-houthi-strikes-on-saudi-arabia",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "G7 nations condemned Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia as diplomatic pressure to restore Strait of Hormuz shipping intensified at the UN.",
      "publisher": "france24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260922-g7-leaders-condemn-houthi-strikes-on-saudi-arabia"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 19% reflects deep skepticism that regional diplomacy at the UN will translate into restored Hormuz shipping before year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "france24.com: G7 leaders condemn Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260922-g7-leaders-condemn-houthi-strikes-on-saudi-arabia",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}