{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092704",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays unlikely",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 114212.02400599999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's refusal to back down after Trump's rejection is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, both sides remain far apart, and the market is not treating a year-end deal as a base case.",
    "The Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at only 4%, with volume up 1553x day-over-day, signaling a sharp spike in attention on Iran-related resolution risk.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle, likely on publicly verifiable transit data; the definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key settlement edge case given disrupted baseline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "afp.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T13:30:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran stood firm Sunday on its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz after Trump rejected the foreign minister's seven-day plan, leaving no deal framework in place.",
      "publisher": "afp.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 19% and the embassy contract at 4% on Kalshi paint a consistent picture: the market sees no near-term diplomatic breakthrough despite Iran's stated desire for a deal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "afp.com: Iran stands firm on Hormuz plan after US rejection | AFP.com",
      "url": "https://www.afp.com/en/iran-stands-firm-hormuz-plan-after-us-rejection",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T13:30:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-09-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}