{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100308",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 80819.146695,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent skepticism about near-term resolution.",
    "Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities and confirmed US strikes on Iranian targets both point to continued escalation, broadly consistent with the low normalization probability.",
    "US heavy strikes on Iran reported in Story 28 represent a further escalation step; markets are not pricing a rapid de-escalation pathway from the current military posture.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a return to normal transit volumes, a measurable operational standard, not just a ceasefire declaration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "abc.net.au",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-04/houthi-saudi-yemen-iraq-middle-east-hostilities/107226524",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran-backed Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco oil facility as Yemen hostilities escalated, adding further regional pressure on Gulf energy infrastructure.",
      "publisher": "abc.net.au",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-04/houthi-saudi-yemen-iraq-middle-east-hostilities/107226524"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 19% on Hormuz normalization is the only priced contract in this cluster; multiple related questions including Iranian fee-charging and US announcements of blockade end carry no live price, leaving Hormuz normalization as the primary available read."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "abc.net.au: Iran-backed Houthis target Saudi oil facility as hostilities escalate",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-04/houthi-saudi-yemen-iraq-middle-east-hostilities/107226524",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}