{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100406",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 70638.4053,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 19% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's explicit conditionality statement is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, resolution before year-end looks unlikely.",
    "With roughly three months remaining and no diplomatic framework visible, the 19% reflects tail-risk scenario odds only.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 (US reopens embassy in Iran) sits at 4%, suggesting the market sees full normalization as even more remote."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The National",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met, as Trump signaled decisions on Iran are imminent.",
      "publisher": "The National",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; Iran's stated conditions create a high bar for the normal-traffic definition."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The National: Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are me",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/04/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-its-conditions-are-met/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T08:22:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}