{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090508",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays below 25 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 26%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 26%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 34171.944291,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 26% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "US intelligence reporting that Iran views Hormuz as leverage and is weighing escalation is consistent with the sub-30% pricing, the market is not buying a near-term resolution.",
    "At 26%, the market is treating Hormuz normalization as a long shot for 2026, implying persistent disruption risk in global energy shipping lanes.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic levels will need a clear, verifiable benchmark, traders should watch how the oracle defines the baseline before the December deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ynet",
          "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US intelligence assessments indicate Iran is determined to continue the war and is weighing major escalation, including leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.",
      "publisher": "ynet",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 26% reflects broad skepticism about a Hormuz resolution this year, aligned with the hawkish US intelligence picture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ynet: US intelligence: Iran determined to continue war, weighing major escal",
      "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkn9szfuzg",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-26-2026-09-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}