{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082106",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 32%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 32%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 93836.80496400001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 32%.",
    "Trump's escalating sanctions rhetoric and Iran's defiant response are consistent with markets assigning only a one-in-three chance of full normalization this year.",
    "A Trump visit to Iran on Kalshi sits at 5%, removing direct diplomacy as a near-term resolution path the market is pricing.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the contract requires traffic to return to normal levels, so partial reopening likely does not settle Yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-sanctions-economic-fury-oil-d28206ea288a3d4a9b82260ab44ce460",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump threatened Iran with an economic D-Day while Tehran, accustomed to sanctions, vowed a devastating response as the Strait of Hormuz standoff deepened.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-sanctions-economic-fury-oil-d28206ea288a3d4a9b82260ab44ce460"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 32% reflects the standoff's durability; the 68% No weight aligns with entrenched US-Iran positions described across multiple stories."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Trump warns Iran of 'economic D-Day,' but it's used to sanctions | AP",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-sanctions-economic-fury-oil-d28206ea288a3d4a9b82260ab44ce460",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}