{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082804",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 32%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 32%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 76812.038683,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 32% chance Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "Qatar's mediation and Iran's willingness to draft conditions are positive signals, but the market assigns only roughly one-in-three odds of full restoration by year-end.",
    "Trump's concurrent rejection of the June MoU terms, reported separately, helps explain why the market stays well below 50% despite active diplomacy.",
    "Resolution requires verified normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait, not merely a diplomatic agreement, a higher bar that adds timeline risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Mediators are stepping up efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran agreeing to draft conditions for restoring normal traffic following a Qatari diplomatic intervention.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 32% reflects diplomatic progress tempered by Trump's hardened sanctions posture and the gap between talks and operational reopening."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Iran war mediators focus on reopening Strait of Hormuz",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-war-mediators-focus-reopening-strait-hormuz-rcna594850",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-28T19:51:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-32-2026-08-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}