{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082306",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 33%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 33%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.33,
    "volume_24h_usd": 146477.760731,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 33%, keeping full reopening a distinct minority outcome.",
    "U.S. sanctions escalation and Iran's defiant posture are consistent with this below-50% reading; China's diplomatic backing for talks is the main upside risk the market is partially pricing.",
    "At 33%, the market is not ruling out a resolution, Pakistan's mediation role and Egypt's parallel diplomacy keep the tail alive.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic is likely defined against a pre-conflict baseline, creating potential dispute risk at settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Randy Thanthong-Knight",
          "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "China backed diplomatic talks with Iran as the U.S. prepared sweeping new sanctions under 'Operation Economic Outcast,' keeping Strait of Hormuz disruption at the center of global trade risk.",
      "publisher": "Randy Thanthong-Knight",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket hosts this year-end contract at 33%; no near-term companion contract has a live price, leaving the full timeline risk concentrated in this single year-end read."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Randy Thanthong-Knight: China Backs Diplomatic Talks With Iran as US Prepares New Sanctions -",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/china-actively-committed-to-iran-talks-with-tensions-rising",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-33-2026-08-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}