{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081804",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end sits below 40 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 36%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 58332.64292100003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 36% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Active ship attacks and Trump's public denial of any Iran talks are consistent with the market's below-50% read, the news and the price are aligned on a pessimistic outlook.",
    "Trump's claim that the strait is 'open and operating' and that mines have been removed is contradicted by the ship attack reported the same day, likely reinforcing the market's skepticism.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle assessing traffic normalization against defined baseline; settlement edge case exists if partial restoration is debated."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran throttled traffic and Trump said the US had no talks planned with Iran.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 36% reflects sustained disruption risk; the news flow of active attacks and diplomatic breakdown is consistent with this pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Ship attacked in Hormuz strait as Iran throttles traffic through key w",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-lebanon-gaza-hormuz-august-18-2026-9c48af23b713709e8e170191fbc78c2a",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T08:31:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-36-2026-08-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}