{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072006",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end holds near even odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 56%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 56%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.56,
    "volume_24h_usd": 48705.607779,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 56% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Ten consecutive nights of US strikes and active IRGC tanker attacks have not pushed the contract below 50%; the market leans toward eventual resolution.",
    "The 56% reading implies the market is treating current escalation as a path toward negotiated reopening rather than permanent disruption, though conviction is limited.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic must be verifiable; the Iran enrichment deal contract at 21% (Story 20) highlights the gap between tactical and diplomatic resolution odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theglobeandmail.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US military bombed Iran for a tenth consecutive night in a renewed push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC attacks on oil tankers.",
      "publisher": "theglobeandmail.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 56% for Hormuz normalization; the contract sits near even odds despite ten nights of strikes, signaling deep uncertainty on the conflict timeline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theglobeandmail.com: U.S. military bombs Iran for 10th consecutive night in renewed push to",
      "url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-and-iran-trade-fire/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-56-2026-07-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}