{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080405",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 58%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 58%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.58,
    "volume_24h_usd": 121478.43618799999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 58% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Reported progress on an Iran-Oman deal is broadly consistent with the above-50% pricing, but the market's near-coin-flip read signals substantial remaining doubt about final execution.",
    "Iran's simultaneous threats of a Gulf 'blackout' over U.S. strikes (Story 28) and Trump's claim the strait is only 'sort of open' (Story 23) explain why the contract has not moved decisively higher.",
    "A companion prediction market ladder (CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0) implies current weekly transit calls in the 50-60 range, well below pre-conflict norms, underscoring why the year-end resolution question remains genuinely open."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran and Oman made progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with officials describing negotiations as advancing.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle based on Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping data by December 31, 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Officials report progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz | A",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-strait-hormuz-oman-diplomacy-6587f90f2ab5beec373ce5fabf637541",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}