{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060605",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by year-end holds majority pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 76%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24270.863375000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 76% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, treating full-year normalization as the base case despite fresh escalation.",
    "The drone intercept is consistent with continued disruption in the near term, but the market is pricing in resolution well before year-end.",
    "The June 30 normalization contract sits at only 20% and the July 31 contract at 39%, revealing a steep near-term discount that flattens by December.",
    "Polymarket contract resolves via PortWatch IMF shipping-traffic data; normalization requires measured vessel traffic to recover to pre-conflict baselines."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US forces intercepted and shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz, which CENTCOM said posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; the gap between 20% by June 30 and 76% by December 31 reflects the market's expectation of a protracted but ultimately resolved disruption."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: US forces intercept drones launched by Iran toward Strait of Hormuz: C",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/us-forces-intercept-drones-launched-by-iran-toward-strait-of-hormuz-centcom/3958146",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T02:14:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}