{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061003",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:16:09.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic normal by December holds above three-quarters",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 76%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24270.863375000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 76%, despite active US-Iran military exchanges.",
    "The news of Iran striking US bases is consistent with near-term disruption, yet the market maintains a strong majority view that normalcy returns within six months.",
    "The June 30 normal-traffic contract sits at only 20%, reflecting near-zero confidence in a rapid resolution but leaving December odds elevated.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; a sustained blockade or mine-laying campaign would be required to push the December contract materially lower."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eoghan Dalton",
          "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/iran-us-2-7066011-Jun2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran attacked US bases in Jordan and Bahrain, marking a major setback to truce talks and raising fresh doubts about Strait of Hormuz shipping.",
      "publisher": "Eoghan Dalton",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:16:09.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/iran-us-2-7066011-Jun2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 76% December read versus 20% for end-June implies traders price the conflict as a weeks-to-months disruption, not a structural closure of the strait."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eoghan Dalton: Iran attacks US army bases in Jordan and Bahrain in latest setback to",
      "url": "https://www.thejournal.ie/iran-us-2-7066011-Jun2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:16:09.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}