{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061104",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T09:14:02.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic normalization by year-end holds majority pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 76%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24270.863375000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 76% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Tehran's closure claim and second-day US strikes represent active conflict, yet the market holds a clear majority on resolution by year-end, implying capital-weighted expectation of eventual diplomatic or military de-escalation within six months.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices only 13% on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30, revealing a large near-term versus long-term spread: the market bets on resolution but not quickly.",
    "Resolves via IMF PortWatch shipping traffic data at portwatch.imf.org; the definition of 'normal' traffic is the key settlement edge case given potential partial reopening scenarios."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Macarena Vidal Liy",
          "source_url": "https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-11/exchange-of-fire-between-us-and-iran-marks-beginning-of-a-dangerous-new-phase-in-the-war.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and Iran exchanged fire for a second consecutive day as Tehran claimed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile ceasefire and global energy shipping routes.",
      "publisher": "Macarena Vidal Liy",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T09:14:02.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-11/exchange-of-fire-between-us-and-iran-marks-beginning-of-a-dangerous-new-phase-in-the-war.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 76% on year-end Hormuz normalization contrasts sharply with 13% on a June 30 deal, reflecting strong conviction in eventual resolution but deep skepticism about near-term diplomacy."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Macarena Vidal Liy: Exchange of fire between US and Iran marks beginning of a dangerous ne",
      "url": "https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-11/exchange-of-fire-between-us-and-iran-marks-beginning-of-a-dangerous-new-phase-in-the-war.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T09:14:02.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-76-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}