{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061504",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by year-end solidifies above consensus",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 78%",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.78,
    "volume_24h_usd": 289674.7514719999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 78% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31.",
    "The deal framework includes Hormuz reopening, making the 78% year-end read broadly consistent with the news, though details remain murky.",
    "The near-term June contract (CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6) prices only 18% for normal traffic by end of June, showing markets see a drawn-out implementation timeline.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; normal traffic requires observable throughput recovery, not just a political announcement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "JON GAMBRELL, ELENA BECATOROS and MICHELLE L. PRICE Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260615/77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A US-Iran interim agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but implementation details and Israeli operations in Lebanon remain unresolved.",
      "publisher": "JON GAMBRELL, ELENA BECATOROS and MICHELLE L. PRICE Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260615/77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's June versus December Hormuz contracts reveal a sharp near-term discount: the formal signing and implementation gap is the dominant risk priced in."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "JON GAMBRELL, ELENA BECATOROS and MICHELLE L. PRICE Associated Press: Initial deal to end US-Iran war moves toward formal signing despite li",
      "url": "https://www.lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260615/77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}