{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060207",
  "record_slug": "hormuz-traffic-normal-by-end-of-june-polymarket-42-2026-06-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
  "headline": "Hormuz traffic normal by end of June: Polymarket 42%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 301190.48171499977,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 42% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June, versus 86% by December 31.",
    "Trump's one-week deal timeline would need to materialize rapidly to shift the near-term 42% toward the longer-dated 86%; the spread signals serious timeline doubt.",
    "Fraying ceasefire and stalled Iran talks reported elsewhere make the June 30 normalization window tight; the 44-point gap between June and December contracts reflects that uncertainty.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; normalization likely requires sustained passage rates returning to pre-conflict baselines."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "military.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump is trying to prevent Israel's Lebanon escalation from derailing an Iran deal, saying a memorandum of understanding could come within a week.",
      "publisher": "military.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 44-percentage-point spread between the June (42%) and December (86%) Polymarket Hormuz contracts quantifies the market's skepticism about Trump's one-week deal optimism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "military.com: Trump Tries to Stop Israel’s Lebanon Push Derailing an Iran Deal",
      "url": "https://www.military.com/trump-tries-to-stop-israels-lebanon-push-derailing-an-iran-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:35:29.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-end-of-june-polymarket-42-2026-06-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-end-of-june-polymarket-42-2026-06-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}